Hi Amy,
First, did you know there are some dates in February where you could actually have free dining? If you click
here, you can read about the details for this special offer. I would love to see you qualify for free dining! But if not, it is tough to say what would be cheaper because of all the many choices you can make with dining. When we visited this summer, we did find that we saved a couple of hundred dollars using the dining plan, but I carefully studied all the menus available at www.waltdisneyworld.com to make our choices the best bang for our dollars. I did this by having each family member make a "pretend order" from the menus then added up the costs to see which meals I should use the dining plan on which ones were better to pay out of pocket. I realize it is a bit of work, but it helps you to make a more educated decision.
You may also want to contact Walt Disney World by calling 407-W-DISNEY and getting free estimates to help you compare the various costs since there are all other kinds of variables with the amount of days on your tickets and extras you can add on to the tickets that will make a difference.
And finally, I find a lot of valuable information through www.mousesavers.com that can help to find the best deal with both dining and packages.
I hope this helps; please let us know if we can help further. --
Kara