Christine:
Great question, especially with the current economy.
In my experience, standard room-only discounts (like AAA) book up quickly and as far out as six months to a year due to the limited number of rooms for that discount. However, that doesn't mean the hotel is booked—or that Disney won't offer a package deal that will save you money.
Generally speaking,
Disney's best deals are vacation packages that are well-publicized and book you about 3 to 6 months out (like the current Free Dining Offer
here
and the popular 7-Nights-for-the-Price-of-4 that began in late
2008 and ended in March for stays as far out as this August).
I find
very few discount offers within a 45- to 60-day window of a visit, so I'm always amazed at folks who think waiting actually gets them a better deal at Disney. (Certainly, there are room-only offers that come available, but mostly in a window of 60 to 90 days, and usually the best ones are offered to either Annual Pass Holders or Florida residents.)
My best advice: when you find a deal, book it. The earlier your reservation date, the better chance you will have of Disney meeting any request you might have like building location or view. If a better deal comes along, Disney is good about allowing you to change your reservation (and for most packages, without penalty, if it's at least 45 days out from your reservation).
The Disney Veterans I know tend to book their MAJOR Disney vacations 6 months up to a year out and then keep a watchful eye on websites like www.mousesavers.com or www.allears.net for specials. I'd recommend that same strategy for you.
Wishing y'all a magical vacation!
Whitney